NRGI staff build economic models in Microsoft Excel to support informed analysis of economic policies in resource-rich countries. NRGI fiscal analysis models are typically adapted from the International Monetary Fund’s FARI model. Staff also build bespoke spreadsheets to assess different macroeconomic policies such as fiscal rules on future resource revenues. To populate these models, staff combine publicly available data from feasibility studies, company reports, EITI and government publications, with access to proprietary data from providers such as SNL for the mining sector or Rystad for the oil and gas sector. NRGI makes all models publicly available, except when they are based on data that NRGI is not legally authorized to share.
Publicly available models are:
- Uganda Mining Tax Model. Developed to evaluate the current fiscal regime for mining, focusing on a hypothetical gold project.
- Kyrgyz Republic Mining Tax Analyses. Built to support the evaluation of the fiscal regime for gold mining, and analyze the opportunity of implementing a tax on unprocessed ores.
- Mongolia Macro-fiscal Model. Developed to project a baseline scenario of the country’s economy and describe how different shocks or policy changes would impact the trajectory of key macroeconomic and fiscal variables over a 30-year horizon.
- Ghana Jubilee Field Fiscal Model. Developed to demonstrate the effects of petroleum revenues on the budget and clarifies the dynamics of taxation from the Jubilee oil project, including petroleum contract implementation by the oil companies in the joint venture.
- Democratic Republic of Congo Fiscal Model. Models on copper/cobalt and gold both benchmark the fiscal regime of Congo’s 2002 mining code against the revised 2018 law and nine other jurisdictions.
- Tunisia petroleum tax analysis. Developed to assess the competitiveness of Tunisia’s fiscal regime for oil and gas, focused on terms in production sharing contracts.
Staff also occasionallyshare reflections on the availability and use of modeling tools: