Minerals and Climate Action: Will COP30 Finally Break the Silence?
As COP30 unfolds, the question is unavoidable: will governments finally recognize the role of minerals in achieving a just and sustainable energy transition?
As is widely known, meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals will require a massive surge in demand for transition minerals. The International Energy Agency projects a fourfold increase by 2040 and, for some materials, demand could rise thirtyfold. Yet, despite their central role in climate action, the UNFCCC has never formally acknowledged mineral governance as part of the solution. That silence must end in Belém.
COP30 offers a historic opportunity to confront one of the great paradoxes of the energy transition: the same minerals required for rapid decarbonization can also deepen inequality and environmental harm unless they are governed justly.
From risk to possibility
The global race for cobalt, nickel, lithium, bauxite and other transition minerals is reshaping the geopolitics of climate action. From our work with governments and civil society in producer countries, we know this surge represents both risk and possibility.
With strong governance, accountability and fair benefit-sharing, mineral demand can fuel clean energy infrastructure, jobs and green industrialization. Fairer trade rules would help countries move from being raw material exporters to participants in value-added industries. But in practice, hundreds of allegations of human rights abuses have been linked to large-scale mining for renewable energy supply chains. More than half of transition mineral deposits lie in or near Indigenous territories, where Free, Prior and Informed Consent is often ignored.
Without change, the transition risks repeating the injustices of the fossil fuel era marked by local harm, limited benefits and widening inequalities. It also puts our ability to meet our climate goals at risk.
Still, there are reasons for optimism. Across the Global South, governments and civil society are pushing for a new model that views minerals as a foundation for shared prosperity and climate justice.
Momentum is building
In recent months, efforts to reshape mineral governance have gathered remarkable pace.
The UN Secretary-General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals outlined principles and recommendations to ensure equity, justice, and sustainability in extraction. UNCTAD, UNEP and UNIDO have already begun embedding these ideas in their programs and partnerships.
Regional and national action is accelerating too. The African Union’s Green Minerals Strategy provides a roadmap for equitable industrialization and electrification. Harnessing minerals for inclusive growth is one of South Africa’s priorities as G20 President. Countries such as Chile, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and are advancing national strategies to align mineral governance with climate goals.
At the upcoming UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-7) in Nairobi this December, countries will debate Colombia’s proposal for a global accountability framework to reduce the human and environmental toll of mining and processing.
On the private sector front, the USD 18 billion-backed investor initiative, Mining Commission 2030, where NRGI serves as a member, has just released its vision for consultation, aimed at unlocking responsible mining investment.
And within the UNFCCC itself, momentum is undeniable. At the Fourth Dialogue of the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) in Addis Ababa this September, governments from across the Global South, including Tanzania for the African Group and Colombia for AILAC (Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean), called for transition minerals to be explicitly recognized in the negotiations. They emphasized equitable benefit-sharing, local value addition and stronger social and environmental protections.
Blocs like the G77+China and the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) raised similar points. South Africa and Uganda urged fairer mineral value chains, while Colombia proposed protecting “no-go zones,” ecologically vital areas off-limits to mining and drilling.
The Response Measures Forum, one of the UNFCCC negotiation tracks, also dedicated a session to minerals in September.
And, the 2025 Africa Climate Summit saw heads of state, for the first time, acknowledge the need for just mineral supply chains. Zimbabwe has since echoed these calls, integrating mineral governance into its national COP30 agenda. Brazil, this year’s COP host, is reportedly exploring the issue as well.
The message is clear: minerals are moving to the center of the climate conversation.
What COP30 must deliver
Belém is the place to turn this awareness into action. Parties at COP30 should:
- Acknowledge the issue. For the first time, governments should formally recognize that effective mineral governance is essential to the Paris Agreement.
- Set the path. Endorse the principles of the UN Secretary-General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, a framework grounded in equity, justice and prosperity.
- Match ambition with means. Support implementation through initiatives such as the proposed Belém Action Mechanism (BAM) for a Global Just Transition, ensuring coordination and resources for mineral-producing countries.
- Drive national action. Call on governments to strengthen transparency, protect human and environmental rights, and pursue green industrialization strategies that deliver value addition and clean-energy access for all.
From Belém to beyond
This is not about adding new complexity to already difficult negotiations. It is about making climate action fair and a driver of equitable development.
Strong commitments at COP30 would empower countries to drive their own just transitions while creating space for new coalitions between producing nations, Indigenous Peoples and civil society. A breakthrough in Belém could reverberate beyond the COP, shaping discussions at the World Trade Organization, the G20, and multilateral development banks, where fairer mineral trade and governance reforms are urgently needed.
Breaking the silence at COP30 would mark a new chapter, one where the minerals powering our future also power justice, equity and prosperity.
