One Crisis, Seven Lenses : MENA’s Energy Transition at a Crossroads
What the 2026 energy shock means for the future of transition in MENA
In early 2026, the U.S.-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered the most severe energy supply shock in decades — disrupting global hydrocarbon flows and exposing just how fragile and interconnected energy markets are. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the shock carried different meaning for fossil fuel producers trapped by the Hormuz closure, for other fossil fuel exporters, and for energy-importing countries. But for every government in the region, it landed on territory where energy is already a daily household concern, and where the transition to cleaner, fairer energy was only beginning to gain momentum.
The crisis pushed energy security to the top of every policy agenda in the region, while simultaneously raising new questions about the future of the transition itself. The same shock is pulling policymakers, investors, and communities in multiple directions at once. Which path prevails will depend on the choices made now.
That is why we set up the NRGI MENA Just Energy Transition Platform, as a space for knowledge production, dialogue, and advocacy among those committed to a transition that is not only faster but fairer, anchored in strong governance foundations. Among the community of experts, we work with an Advisory Expert Group to support and guide us — leading voices on energy, governance, and transition from across the region. In the weeks following the crisis, we put one question to this group: What does this moment mean for the future of energy transition in MENA? Each responded from a different vantage point. Read together, they converge on the same central tension.
The reflections below are short excerpts from longer contributions by members of the NRGI MENA Just Energy Transition Platform Advisory Expert Group. You can read their full analyses in the briefing available for download at the end of this page.
The Strategist's Lens — Dr. Manal Shehabi — Senior Research Fellow, University of Oxford; NRGI MENA Advisory Board
The crisis cuts both ways for MENA's energy transition. Gulf exporters, unable to reap their usual windfalls, are cutting long-term transition spending first. Oil importers like Jordan, Egypt and Morocco have the strongest incentive to accelerate — but the least fiscal room to do so. The same shock that makes the transition more urgent is also what makes it hardest to fund.
The Resilience Lens — Dr. Mohammed Al-Breiki — Head of Industrial Studies and Policies, Gulf Organization for Industrial Consulting (GOIC)
For the Gulf, the crisis is not a choice between hydrocarbons and transition — it is a push to manage both. Higher revenues are being directed toward resilience, economic diversification and deeper regional integration: energy grids, the GCC railway, strategic reserves. Hydrocarbons remain the source of stability while the longer-term shift is built.
The Trade-offs Lens — Sarine Karajerjian — Program Director, Environmental Politics Program, Arab Reform Initiative
The crisis forces fragile MENA governments to navigate five trade-offs at once: security vs. transition, centralized vs. decentralized power, fiscal stability vs. social protection, speed vs. governance, and diversification vs. geopolitical alignment. How they balance these competing pressures — not whether they transition — will decide whether the shift is fair or deepens existing inequalities.
The Gender Lens — Myriam Sfeir — Executive Director, Arab Institute for Women
The energy crisis hits women hardest: more unpaid work, less income, and deeper inequality. Yet policy continues to treat all households alike. Effective responses require gender-sensitive energy policy that sees who is actually absorbing the cost — and designs support accordingly.
The Civil Society Lens — Dr. Pierre Saade — Head of Middle East and North Africa, Resource Justice Network
Civil society's role is to bring big energy decisions back down to lived reality — the cost of cooking, transport, and electricity — and to ask who benefits and who bears the risk as pipelines and corridors return under the banner of energy security. As energy access grows more conditional and contested, democratic oversight and community accountability matter more than ever.
The Opportunity Lens — Dr. Jauad El Kharaz — Co-Chair, Mediterranean Clean Energy Network (MEDCEN)
What if the crisis is the opening, not the setback? A Mediterranean remade not as a fossil gas corridor, but as a global green energy hub — 1 TW of renewables by 2030, powering local industry, not just exporting to Europe. The political and financial momentum created by this crisis may be exactly what makes that ambition achievable.
The Media Lens — Roula Mikhael — Executive Director, Maharat Foundation
Media coverage of the crisis stays fixed on prices and shortages, missing the bigger story of structural transition — held back by limited access to energy data and varied editorial pressures across the region. Stronger technical expertise among journalists and a more constructive journalism approach could shift coverage from reactive reporting toward informed, accountable, and forward-looking public debate.
Seven lenses. One crisis. One central tension: whether the energy transition can survive a shock that makes it both more necessary and harder to fund.
The energy transition has become an energy-security argument, not only a climate one. The resilient path runs through renewables, grids, and decentralized systems — but it only holds if the people bearing the cost stay at the center, and the governance of fast deployment keeps pace with ambition. That is what the NRGI MENA Just Energy Transition Platform exists to ensure.
Read all seven perspectives in full — download the briefing: One Crisis, Seven Lenses
Authors
Abir Yahyaoui
Middle East and North Africa Senior Program Officer
Laury Haytayan
Middle East and North Africa Director