National Oil Company Profile: Petrobras
Highlights
- Oil production in Brazil, including Petrobras’s, is expected to increase until 2030 and then decline. At current production rates and without further discoveries, Petrobras’s oil reserves will be depleted by 2032. Gas production is expected to continue at its current level, except in a fast transition scenario, which requires a decline from 2030 onwards.
- Because of Petrobras’s production costs, 12 percent of its investment pipeline will not break even in a moderate transition scenario.
- Petrobras has acknowledged and is actively managing its transition risks, including by reducing emissions and exploring low-carbon diversification strategies.
- The Brazilian government recognizes the country’s dependence on fossil fuels; however, the sector does not significantly impact government revenues, thus limiting resulting fiscal risks.
See the accompanying guide for definitions of all variables and explanations of the terms used. Sources are referenced with a number in parentheses, e.g., (1), and listed at the end of the profile together with the reference year. An explanation of the energy transition scenarios used is also at the end of the profile, preceding the references.
This profile was last updated in August 2024.
Key statistics
| Potential emissions from reserves (proved, 1P) (1) | 558 Mt CO₂e |
| Home country income level (2) | Upper-middle income |
| Equitable phase-out responsibility (11) | By 2034 |
| Company transition risk: share of investment that does not break even in a moderate transition scenario (1, 19) | 12% |
| Government revenues from oil and gas at risk in a moderate transition scenario, as share of current oil and gas government revenue (8) | N/A |
| Current share of total government revenue from oil and gas (8) | N/A |
Company governance
Petrobras is an integrated group engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, refining and transport in addition to petrochemicals, renewables and biofuels. Government actors (primarily the Federal Government and BNDES, the Brazilian Development Bank) jointly own 50.26 percent of voting shares (13). The national oil company (NOC) operates exploration and production internationally in Argentina, Bolivia and the U.S.
The president of Petrobras is Magda Chambriard (since July 2024). The company’s board of directors is composed of at least seven and at most 11 members, elected at the general shareholders’ meeting for a term of up to two years, with three consecutive reelections permitted.
Petrobras is a joint-stock company listed on three stock exchanges.
| Founded (5) | 1953 |
| Partially privatized (5) | 1997 |
| Listed on exchange (5) | B3 (Brazil), NYSE, Latibex (Spain) |
| Employment (3) | 46,730 |
| OPEC member country (15) | No |
| International exploration and production operations (5) | Argentina, Bolivia, U.S. |
| Subsidiaries (5) | 49 subsidiaries in 8 countries |
Ownership
| Federal Government of Brazil | 28.67% |
| BNDES | 16.07% |
| GQG Partners | 5.14% |
| BlackRock Institutional Trust Company | 5.03% |
| Vanguard Group | 3.02% |
| Others | 42.07% |
Source: (5)
Environmental, social and governance performance
Petrobras has environmental, social and governance (ESG) indicators close to the global NOC average, except for its social score, which is one of the world’s highest. Brazil’s Resource Governance Index score (which measures the transparency and accountability of fossil fuel revenue management, value realization, and the quality of the wider enabling governance environment) is well above regional and global averages.
| Company | Country | ESG score (5) | Environmental score (5) | Social score (5) | Governance score (5) | Resource Governance Index score (15) |
| Petrobras | Brazil | 75 | 62 | 90 | 68 | 71 |
| Ecopetrol | Colombia | 69 | 59 | 75 | 72 | 71 |
| YPF | Argentina | 71 | 63 | 67 | 89 | 57 |
| Regional average | 72 | 61 | 77 | 76 | 59 | |
| Global average | 66 | 68 | 66 | 64 | 52 | |
Reserves and production
Petrobras’s oil production has strongly increased since 2005. Rystad Energy expects production to peak around 2030, followed by a decline, even in the scenarios assuming an expansion in global demand. The major growth of Brazil’s oil production is due to the discovery in 2006 of pre-salt reserves, a type of reserves that grants Petrobras access to significant high-quality light crude oil.
Gas production is much smaller and declines only in the fast and moderate transition scenarios.
Sources: (1, 3, NRGI visualization)
| Refining capacity (bpd) (14) | 1,851,000 |
| Pipelines length (km) (14) | 7,000 |
| Oil reserves of NOC (proved, 1P) (million boe) (1) | 6,820 |
| Oil reserves of NOC as a share of reserves of country (1) | 128% |
| Years of oil reserves left at current production (1) | 8 |
| Gas reserves of NOC (million boe) (1) | 951 |
| Gas reserves of NOC / reserves of country (1) | 70% |
| Years of gas reserves left at current production (1) | 11 |
| NOC share in the country’s total oil production (3) | 54% |
| NOC share in the country’s total gas production (3) | 77% |
| NOC ownership share of the country’s oil reserves[1] (3) | 128% |
Transition and other economic risks
Brazil’s public finances are not reliant on Petrobras’s transfers; however, 10 percent of its foreign export revenues depend on crude oil and gas exports, a share that has increased in the past five years.
Petrobras appears to have a relatively strong financial position, an indication of its ability to withstand transition and other economic risks. The company has a return on capital rate and leverage only slightly worse than global averages and good levels of liquidity.
Economic dependence on fossil fuel revenues and exports
| Indicator | 2013–2017 | 2018–2022 |
| NOC transfers to government / total fiscal revenue (3, 1) | 1% | 3% |
| Crude oil export revenues / country’s export revenues (17, 19) | 6% | 10% |
| Gas export revenues / country’s export revenues (17, 19) | 7% | 11% |
Government revenues at risk in the transition
| Share of oil and gas revenue in total government revenue (8) | Government revenues from oil and gas at risk in the moderate transition scenario, as share of current oil and gas government revenue (8) | |
| Brazil | N/A | N/A |
| Suriname | 11% | 1% |
| Colombia | 5% | 83% |
| Mexico | 7% | 90% |
| Venezuela | 100% | 85% |
| Regional average | 27% | 70% |
| Global median | 44% | 56% |
Credit ratings
| Fitch (5) | Moody’s (5) | S&P (5) | |
| Brazil | BB | Ba2 | BB |
| Petrobras | BB | Ba1 | BB |
Petrobras financial performance
| Company | Country | Liquidity: current ratio (1, 3) | Efficiency and profits: return on capital employed (1, 3) | Indebtedness: leverage (1, 3) |
| Petrobras | Brazil | 39% | 13% | 51% |
| Ecopetrol | Colombia | 34% | 20% | 44% |
| Pemex | Mexico | 10% | 17% | 161% |
| Regional median | 22% | 19% | 44% | |
| Global median | 33% | 14% | 30% | |
Investment at risk in different energy transition scenarios
In the moderate transition scenario, 88 percent of Petrobras’s investment pipeline breaks even (19)
In terms of acknowledging the financial risks resulting from the global energy transition, Petrobras is a regional leader and is ranked 17th out of 99 oil and gas companies surveyed by the World Benchmarking Alliance (21). The company acknowledges and is managing the financial risks resulting from the global energy transition. However, it has not published a just transition plan for its workers and communities (12).
The company is investing in the advanced biofuels segment, low-carbon hydrogen and renewable energy to diversify its portfolio. It is also investing in re-skilling its employees in alternative activities. Petrobras plans to invest USD 3.7 billion in the decarbonization of operations, $0.6 billion in biorefining and $0.1 billion in skills for the future between 2023 and 2027.Sources: (12, 13, 14)
Source: (19)
Energy security
Brazil is self-sufficient in crude oil; however, it still imports more refined oil products than it exports (20). Further, Brazil has only eight years left of oil reserves and 11 years of gas reserves at current rates of production without new discoveries. The country imports 40 percent of its gas supply. Nevertheless, its power system is extremely green, relying on renewables, mostly hydropower, for 83 percent of its electricity generation (4), with fossil fuels covering peaks. Given the company’s expertise in deep waters and offshore platforms, Petrobras is considering developing an offshore wind business and invests in offshore wind R&D.
| Refining throughput of NOC as a share of final country consumption of oil products (6) | N/A |
| Years of oil reserves left at current production (1) | 8 |
| Years of gas reserves left at current production (1) | 11 |
| Crude oil and refined oil products imports as a share of national consumption of oil products (4) | 34% |
| Share of oil and gas in primary energy consumption of country (4) | 48% |
| Gas imports / country supply of gas (4) | 40% |
| Share of electricity production of country from renewables (4) | 83% |
Climate impacts and greenhouse gas emissions
Petrobras has moderate scope 1 and 2 emissions per barrel, which it seeks to reduce through efficiency measures, renewable energy, and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). Petrobras reduced its midstream oil and gas scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity between 2016 and 2021 but saw only a marginal decline in its upstream scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity. Given the company’s expertise and adoption of a 1.5°C pathway, Petrobras should deliver an 8 percent annual decrease in scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity between 2021 and 2026. The company is a member of the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter and has led several initiatives to decrease flaring and reduce and capture methane emissions.
The NOC has set targets to reduce its scope 1 and 2 emissions by 100 percent by 2050, thereby reaching net zero. The company is electrifying equipment and developing refinery efficiency programs to lower its emissions and improve operational efficiency. It also employs CCUS programs to increase pressure in the basin, particularly in the pre-salt reserves.
Petrobras has one of the best supplier engagement scores and incorporates emissions reduction standards into the annual audits of its suppliers.
| NOC emissions reduction target, scope 3 emissions (14) | 50% by 2050 |
| Annual scope 1 and 2 emissions of NOC (5) | 47.7 Mt CO₂e |
| Annual scope 3 emissions of NOC in 2024 (3, 9) | N/A |
| Average GHG emitted before combustion per barrel of oil produced by companies in country (9) | 72 kg CO₂e/boe |
| Average GHG emitted before combustion per boe of gas produced by companies in country (9) | 69 kg CO₂e/boe |
| Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter member company (10) | Yes |
| NOC net zero target, scope 1 and 2 emissions (5) | 2050 |
| Total potential emissions (scope 1–3) from reserves (1, 9) | 557 Mt CO₂e |
| Equitable phase-out responsibility of the country (11) | 2034 |
Energy transition scenarios
We use four energy transition scenarios:
Fast. We based this scenario on the oil and gas demand estimated in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, which maps out a transition pathway that would limit global warming to 1.5° C. This assumes large-scale negative emissions enabled by technologies such as carbon capture and storage.
Moderate. We based this scenario on the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario which assumes the full and timely implementation of national energy and climate goals, including net zero emissions targets.
Slow. We based this scenario on the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario which assumes governments follow their current set of energy and climate policies.
Expansion. We based this scenario on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) scenario, which assumes a continued expansion in demand up to 2045.
Sources
All data are from the latest year available as referenced in the relevant source as of August 2024. For most data this is 2024. Data related to emissions and NOC finances are from 2023 or in some cases 2022. Data on country-level oil reserves and production, the ownership of oil reserves, employment and energy security are from 2022. The Resource Governance Index score is from 2021. If you find an error in this profile, please email noc_profiles@resourcegovernance.org.
- Rystad Energy UCube, 2024 (proprietary data)
- World Bank, 2024
- NOC Database, 2023
- International Energy Agency (IEA), 2023
- S&P Global IQ, 2024 (proprietary data)
- Statistical Review of World Energy, 2024
- Euromonitor, 2023
- Carbon Tracker, 2023
- Fossil Fuel Registry, 2023
- Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC), 2024
- An Equitable Phase Out of Fossil Fuel Extraction (Equity Review), 2023
- Facing the Future (NRGI), 2023
- Petrobras factsheet, 2023
- Petrobras website, 2024
- Resource Governance Index (NRGI), 2021
- OPEC, 2024
- UN Comtrade, 2024
- Global Oil & Gas Exit List, 2024
- Riskier Bets, Smaller Pockets (NRGI), 2023
- Observatory of Economic Complexity, 2024
- World Benchmarking Alliance, 2023
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