National Oil Company Profile: YPFB
Highlights
- Oil and gas production in Bolivia, including YPFB’s, has declined since 2013.
- Because of YPFB’s production costs, only 8 percent of its investment pipeline is likely to break even in the moderate energy transition scenario; the rest will not break even in even the slow transition scenario.
- YPFB has not acknowledged the transition risks it faces and is not actively exploring low-carbon diversification strategies.
- YPFB’s transfers provide, on average, 14 percent of Bolivian government revenues. The government does not seem to have addressed the country’s moderate dependence on oil revenues and the resulting economic risks.
See the accompanying guide for definitions of all variables and explanations of the terms used. Sources are referenced with a number in parentheses, e.g., (1), and listed at the end of the profile, together with the reference year. An explanation of the energy transition scenarios used is also at the end of the profile, preceding the references.
This profile was last updated in August 2024.
Key statistics
| Potential scope 3 emissions from reserves (proved, 1P) (1) | 9 Mt CO₂e |
| Home country income level (2) | Lower-middle income |
| Equitable phase-out responsibility (11) | N/A |
| Company transition risk: share of investment that does not break even in the moderate transition scenario (1, 20) | 92% |
| Government revenues from oil and gas at risk in the moderate transition scenario, as share of current oil and gas government revenue (8) | 83% |
| Current share of total government revenue from oil and gas (8) | 15% |
Company governance
YPFB was set up following the example of YPF in Argentina in 1936. The company is engaged in oil and gas exploration, production, refining and transport. It is fully owned by the Bolivian government and does not operate internationally.
The national oil company’s (NOC) President is Armin Ludwig Dorgathen Tapia, an engineer with previous experience at Total. The government appoints the company’s directors.
YPFB has the structure of a state-owned enterprise and is not listed on stock exchanges. The government is the sole owner of the company.
| Founded (21) | 1936 |
| Listed on exchange (5) | No |
| Employment (3) | N/A |
| OPEC member country (15) | No |
| International exploration and production operations (1, 5) | No |
| Subsidiaries (5) | 9 subsidiaries in 1 country |
Ownership
| Government of Bolivia | 100% |
Source: (5)
Environmental, social and governance performance
YPFB regularly publishes annual reports including some information about annual CO2-equivalent emissions and their respective targets. Eikon Refinitiv does not provide environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance indicators for YPFB. Bolivia’s Resource Governance Index score (which measures the transparency and accountability of fossil fuel revenue management, value realisation, and the quality of the wider enabling governance environment) is similar to regional and global averages.
| Company | Country | ESG score (5) | Environmental score (5) | Social score (5) | Governance score (5) | Country Resource Governance Index score (15) |
| YPFB | Bolivia | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 54 |
| Ecopetrol | Colombia | 69 | 59 | 75 | 72 | 71 |
| Petrobras | Brazil | 75 | 62 | 90 | 68 | 71 |
| YPF | Argentina | 71 | 63 | 67 | 89 | 57 |
| Regional average | 72 | 61 | 77 | 76 | 59 | |
| Global average | 66 | 68 | 66 | 64 | 52 | |
Reserves and production
YPFB’s oil and gas production has followed a long-term decline since 2013. Despite a recent intention to revive oil and gas investments (13), Rystad Energy expects this decline to continue, even in the expansion scenario.
Sources: (1, 3, NRGI visualization)
| Refining capacity (bpd) (14) | 52,350 |
| Pipeline capacity (bpd) | N/A |
| Oil reserves of NOC (proved, 1P) (million boe) (1) | 5 |
| Oil reserves of NOC as share of country reserves (1) | 6% |
| Years of oil reserves left at current production (1) | N/A |
| Gas reserves of NOC (million boe) (1) | 88 |
| Gas reserves of NOC as share of reserves of country (1) | 15% |
| Years of gas reserves left at current production (1) | N/A |
| NOC share in the country’s total oil production (3) | 12% |
| NOC share in the country’s total gas production (3) | 17% |
| NOC ownership share of the country’s oil reserves (3) | 6% |
Transition and other economic risks
Bolivia’s public finances’ reliance on YPFB’s transfers has been declining, reaching 14 percent of government revenues. However, 83 percent of these transfers and oil and gas revenues are at risk in the moderate transition scenario. The country’s exports, and therefore its currency and trade balance, are not dependent on crude oil but, despite a decline, are still heavily influenced by gas exports.
None of YPFB’s investment projects from 2024 to 2033 will break even in the moderate energy transition scenario. YPFB’s investment pipeline is one of the most exposed in the world.
Nevertheless, as of August 2024, YPFB appears to have a moderately strong financial position, an indication of its ability to withstand these risks. While the NOC has low liquidity and a low return on capital, it also has very low indebtedness as measured by leverage.
Economic dependence on fossil fuel revenues and exports
| Indicator | 2013–2017 | 2018–2022 |
| NOC transfers to government as share of total fiscal revenue (3, 1) | 18% | 14% |
| Crude oil export revenues as share of country’s export revenues (17, 19) | 3% | 0% |
| Gas export revenues as share of country’s export revenues (17, 19) | 40% | 26% |
Government revenues at risk in the transition
| Share of oil and gas revenue in total government revenue (8) | Government revenues from oil and gas in the moderate transition scenario, as share of current oil and gas government revenue (8) | |
| Bolivia | 15% | 83% |
| Suriname | 11% | 1% |
| Colombia | 5% | 83% |
| Regional median | 27% | 70% |
| Global median | 44% | 56% |
Credit ratings
| Fitch (5) | Moody’s (5) | S&P (5) | |
| Bolivia | CCC | Caa3 | CCC+ |
| YPFB | N/A | N/A | N/A |
YPFB financial performance
| Company | Country | Liquidity: current ratio (1, 3) | Efficiency and profits: return on capital employed (1, 3) | Indebtedness: leverage (1, 3) |
| YPFB | Bolivia | 15% | 3.6% | 12% |
| Petrobras | Brazil | 39% | 13% | 51% |
| Pemex | Mexico | 10% | 17% | 161% |
| Regional median | 22% | 19% | 44% | |
| Global median | 33% | 14% | 30% | |
Investment value at risk in different energy transition scenarios
Sources: (1, 20)
The NOC has not yet set long-term targets to reduce its scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions.
No significant diversification strategies, besides shifting investment from oil towards gas, have been disclosed.
Despite YPFB’s high exposure to transition risk, the company has not divested from high-cost upstream assets and continues to expand upstream developments.
Sources: (12, 13, 14)
Energy security
Bolivia is self-sufficient in crude oil; however, it imports over USD1 billion in refined products (24). The country’s power system relies on renewables for 36 percent of its electricity generation (4), mostly hydropower, although oil and gas cover 81 percent of the country’s energy consumption.
| Refining throughput of NOC as share of final country consumption of oil products (6) | N/A |
| Years of oil reserves left at current production (1) | N/A |
| Years of gas reserves left at current production (1) | N/A |
| Crude oil and refined oil products imports as share of national consumption of oil products (4) | N/A |
| Share of oil and gas in primary energy consumption of country (4) | 81% |
| Gas imports as share of country supply of gas (4) | 0% |
| Share of electricity production of country from renewables (4) | 36% |
Climate impacts and GHG emissions
YPFB has relatively high scope 1 and 2 emissions per barrel. Its total potential emissions from proven reserves amount to 9 Mt CO₂e.
| NOC emissions reduction target, scope 3 emissions | N/A |
| Annual scope 1 and 2 emissions of NOC (3) | N/A |
| Average GHG emitted before combustion per barrel of oil produced by companies in country (9) | 78 kg CO₂e/boe |
| Average GHG emitted before combustion per boe of gas produced by companies in country (9) | 101 kg CO₂e/boe |
| OGDC member company (21) | No |
| NOC net zero target, scope 1 and 2 emissions (5) | N/A |
| Total potential emissions (scope 1–3) from reserves (1, 9) | 9 Mt CO₂e |
| Equitable phase-out responsibility of the country (11) | N/A |
Energy transition scenarios
We use four energy transition scenarios:
Fast. We based this scenario on the oil and gas demand estimated in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, which maps out a transition pathway that would limit global warming to 1.5°C. This assumes large-scale negative emissions enabled by technologies such as carbon capture and storage.
Moderate. We based this scenario on the IEA’s Announced Pledges Scenario, which assumes the full and timely implementation of national energy and climate goals, including net zero emissions targets.
Slow. We based this scenario on the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario, which assumes governments follow their current set of energy and climate policies.
Expansion. We based this scenario on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ scenario, which assumes a continued expansion in demand up to 2045.
Sources
All data are from the latest year available as referenced in the relevant source as of August 2024. For most data this is 2024. Data related to emissions and NOC finances are from 2023 or in some cases 2022. Data on country-level oil and gas reserves and production, the ownership of oil and gas reserves, employment and energy security are from 2022. The Resource Governance Index score is from 2021. If you find an error in this profile, please email [email protected].
- Rystad Energy UCube, 2024 (proprietary data)
- World Bank, 2024
- NOC Database, 2023
- International Energy Agency (IEA), 2024
- S&P Global IQ, 2024 (proprietary data)
- Statistical Review of World Energy, 2024
- Euromonitor, 2023
- Carbon Tracker, 2023
- Fossil Fuel Registry, 2023
- Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC), 2024
- An Equitable Phase Out of Fossil Fuel Extraction (Equity Review), 2023
- Facing the Future (NRGI), 2023
- Reuters, 2024
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2024
- Resource Governance Index (NRGI), 2021
- OPEC, 2024
- U.N. Comtrade, 2024
- Global Oil & Gas Exit List, 2024
- World Bank, 2024
- Riskier Bets, Smaller Pockets (NRGI), 2023
- YPFB website, 2024
- Observatory of Economic Complexity, 2023
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