Beyond Oil and Gas: Regional Perspectives on a Transition Under Pressure

"African governments are navigating a dual reality that is shaping their approach to the energy transition. On one hand, oil price volatility is exposing how fragile current development models are. When revenues drop, it directly affects governments' ability to fund basic services like health and education, and this is prompting some reflection on the risk of continued dependence on oil and gas. On the other hand, geopolitical shifts—particularly following the Russia-Ukraine war—have made African hydrocarbons more strategically valuable. Increased global demand, especially for LNG, is pushing many governments to expand production in the short term."

The result is what Nafi calls a hedging strategy: transition commitments on paper, new extraction deals in practice. In Nigeria alone, around 70 to 80% of government revenue comes from the oil sector and, across the continent, oil and gas still underpin national budgets and public services. For countries in this position, the absence of credible, financed alternatives is the real constraint—not a lack of ambition.

"The issue is not a lack of willingness to transition, but rather the lack of credible, financed alternatives. The priority now is ensuring that near-term resource revenues actively support long-term economic diversification rather than deepening dependency."

In Latin America, the starting point looks different. The region already has one of the cleanest energy matrices globally, and major oil-producing countries—Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Trinidad and Tobago—have expressed interest in defining roadmaps for a just and orderly transition beyond fossil fuels, a conversation that until very recently was considered taboo. But that leadership is now being tested by the current energy crisis.

"The region is positioning itself strongly in the global energy market. The capacity of Brazil, Guyana, Argentina and even Venezuela to expand hydrocarbon production and respond to gaps created by conflict in the Middle East could generate significant revenues. But many oil-exporting countries—such as Colombia or Mexico—are also importers of refined products or gas, meaning their economies are hit from both sides. The response from some policymakers has been to increase production and consider new projects to maximize revenues and ensure self-sufficiency. But this also exposes countries to significant long-term risks."

Across the Middle East, the question for many producers is not when to phase out oil and gas—it is whether that is even the right conversation.

"MENA producing countries, and their national oil companies have been very clear about their position vis-à-vis the energy transition. They have been saying that there is not one transition. There are transitions, each country according to its capacities. On top of that, they talk about energy additions. According to MENA producers, the world economy is still guided and fueled by fossil fuels—therefore, any deployment of renewable or clean energy is coming on top of oil and gas demand."

The Hormuz crisis has made that position harder to shift. With Gulf export routes disrupted, the priority is securing supply—not winding it down. Meanwhile, countries actively diversifying are doing so on their own terms, moving national oil companies into petrochemicals and renewables while maintaining oil production.

“Countries like Saudi Arabia are working hard to diversify their economies. But it takes billions of dollars—and time, vision and discipline—to build a parallel economy.”

What does a just transition mean in practice?

Santa Marta’s call for a transition that leaves no one behind puts equity and finance at the center. For all three directors, the challenge is turning that principle into reality.

Nafi Quarshie

"Good resource governance today is no longer just about managing revenues well. It is about managing decline, uncertainty and transition. That requires stronger institutions, better data and sustained civic engagement to ensure that short-term resource decisions are aligned with long-term economic transformation."

That shift is visible in NRGI's work across the region—from supporting analysis on long-term revenue risk in Senegal, to helping governments and civil society confront the structural costs of fossil fuel dependence in Nigeria and Ghana—and in the question COP30 left unanswered: who pays in countries that contributed least to the problem.

"A just transition in Africa is not just about moving away from fossil fuels. It is about building economies that work for people. And that requires coordinated action now to align finance, policy and institutions with that reality."

Ana Carolina González Espinosa

For Ana Carolina, a just transition in Latin America is both an environmental and an economic necessity. The global energy transition puts at risk a sector central to the region's economies, and the current high prices carry a warning: they may also accelerate the transition.

"It is essential that we adopt a bold approach to this moment. The space that Latin America has occupied in the discussion on the energy transition can be a source of many opportunities that decision-makers must seize—to attract investment toward new sectors, to transform national oil companies into drivers of new energy models, and to define new pathways to prosperity in oil-producing regions where economic activity is already in decline."

Venezuela serves as a cautionary tale of what happens when strong democratic institutions are absent and revenues are not used to diversify. Mexico and Brazil show a different path for diversification is possible. But there is no single route, even within the region.

"There is no single pathway for the transition... For hydrocarbon-producing countries, it is not only an energy transformation, but also an economic one. This is more urgent in countries with low production and declining reserves, such as Mexico and Colombia—and particularly at the subnational level, where decline is already being felt in places like Loreto in Peru, Putumayo in Colombia and Campeche in Mexico."

Laury Haytayan

In MENA, countries are not engaging with just transition in the way Santa Marta frames it—and the response of European governments to the Hormuz crisis is reinforcing that gap.

"The moment European governments faced the crisis, they automatically ran to their producer—Italy to Algeria, for instance—asking them to increase production. These are signs that empower companies and producing countries in the region to say: oil and gas are still needed, even for Europe."

The risk, Laury argues, is mistaking short-term demand for a long-term trend. In Tunisia, meanwhile, a different understanding of just transition is taking shape—focused not on phase-out, but on who benefits from new energy systems.

“Communities are part of the decision-making around these new renewable projects. They want to be heard, they want to be part of decision-making and they want to see the benefits of these projects before these new energies are exported to Europe or to other markets.”

Looking ahead

Santa Marta aims to drive a just and orderly transition away from fossil fuels. But countries are not starting from the same place—and many are not moving in the same direction.

The transition will not be decided by ambition alone—it will depend on whether governments can navigate the trade-offs they face today, and whether international cooperation can match those realities.

This Q&A is part of NRGI's 20th anniversary series, produced in conjunction with the Santa Marta conference on pathways beyond oil and gas, 28–29 April 2026.