National Oil Companies Are Gaining Ground in Climate Talks. Can COP30 Turn Interest Into Action?

NOCs produce more than half of the world’s oil and gas output, yet they have remained largely absent from climate debates. Unlike international oil companies, they are state-owned actors that shape and are shaped by national policy. In the last COP cycles, however, their presence has grown.

At COP28, 34 NOCs signed the Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter, pledging to cut operational emissions, end routine flaring and reduce methane intensity to 0.2 percent by 2030. The Charter, however, does not address emissions generated when the oil and gas they produce is burned, and many signatories continue approving new oil and gas projects, patterns inconsistent with the global stocktake’s call to transition away from fossil fuels.

Beyond COPs, climate interest in NOCs is growing. NRGI has received more invitations to speak at climate forums about NOCs and collaborate on the topic. Other organizations are also expanding work in this space, such as EDF on methane measurement and IISD on NOC transition pathways. Yet, despite this momentum, few governments are integrating NOCs into their climate policies.

Most national pledges overlook NOCs

Only ten countries mentioned their NOC in their NDC 2.0 (in any form, including just a passing reference): Azerbaijan, Cameroon, China, Colombia, Ecuador, Oman, Mexico, Qatar, the UAE and Venezuela. In the current wave of NDC 3.0 updates, only five countries have done so to date: Azerbaijan, Angola, Bangladesh, the UAE, and Venezuela.

As state-owned enterprises, NOCs embody the government’s direct influence—and responsibility—over an important source of emissions. For example, in Mexico the energy sector accounts for around 64 percent of national greenhouse gas emissions, and Pemex alone produces about 95 percent of the country’s hydrocarbons.

Countries that have not yet submitted their NDC 3.0 can still integrate them in this round; those that have can incorporate them into implementation frameworks so that climate commitments remain credible.

However, a mention is not a commitment to action. Below are core elements of robust NOC integration into NDCs. To date, only the first category appears in any NDCs.

• Set explicit carbon and methane reduction targets for the NOC.
  • Colombia’s NDC 2.0 mentions that “Ecopetrol committed in 2019 to reduce its emissions by 20% by 2030 in line with the country target defined in 2015.”
  • Qatar’s NDC 2.0 states that “Qatar Petroleum (QP) is committed to zero routine flaring by 2030, with a long-term goal to reduce flaring in onshore facilities to the absolute minimum.”
  • Mexico’s NDC 2.0 notes that “Petróleos Mexicanos has set a methane gas utilization target of 98%, considering the production of existing and new fields.”
  • The UAE’s NDC 3.0 mentions the NOC’s ambition “to achieve net zero by 2045” and “reduce carbon intensity by 25% by 2030,” and a target to “have methane intensity below 0.15% by 2025.”
• Express those targets in absolute terms, with defined baselines and reference years.
• Cover full value chain emissions—including Scope 3 emissions—associated with current, planned and projected operations, with clear milestones for national action on Scope 1 and 2.
• Disclose or estimate the NOC’s share of national emissions.
• Explicitly align NOC strategies and capital spending with national climate targets.
• Establish a framework for tracking NOC-specific emissions and progress.
• Acknowledge exposure to transition risks (economic, fiscal and market impacts from a long-term decline in oil and gas demand).
• Task the NOC with contributing to a just transition such as regional economic diversification, workforce reskilling and responsible infrastructure decommissioning.
• Involve NOC leadership and workers in the NDC drafting process.

Why stronger NOC targets could unlock climate finance

International lenders and climate finance institutions increasingly treat NDCs as investment plans. When NOCs are major emitters, they need NOC-specific targets and disclosures. Without this level of transparency, it is difficult to assess investment needs or align climate finance instruments.

Methane reduction is where climate finance can move fastest. Around 80 percent of oil and gas abatement options are cost-neutral or profitable. NOCs could lead the way. With targeted funding for leak detection, flaring reduction and monitoring, governments could secure rapid, measurable results.

For countries like Mexico or Nigeria, where regulations already exist but enforcement is weak, including these targets in NDCs could strengthen oversight and attract international support for implementation.

Climate planning around NOCs must also address just transition responsibilities

The UNFCCC has emphasized that this next round must include the social and economic plans that make emissions targets viable—and this just transition focus is set to increase at COP30. For countries with NOCs, such plans are impossible without them.

In many low- and middle-income countries, NOCs are major employers and fiscal pillars. NOCs also often safeguard national resources and ensure energy security. Their operations are tied to public services, regional development and politics, making them vital actors and potential obstacles to change. For example, Pemex has resisted methane regulation and enforcement efforts, shifted targets and limited independent oversight.

Global just transition agendas, including the UNFCCC’s Just Transition Work Programme, rarely mention NOCs. Recognizing their role is crucial to building just transition strategies that are socially inclusive and politically viable.

In Mexico, oil-dependent states of Campeche and Tabasco are already feeling the effects of declining production—from shrinking fiscal revenues to job losses. Mexico’s climate policy should incorporate explicit just transition measures linked to Pemex’s operations, focusing on regional economic diversification, workforce reskilling and responsible decommissioning of oil infrastructure.

How can COP30 advance the integration of NOCs in climate action?

Brazil—where Petrobras’s role continues to expose the tensions between climate ambition and fossil expansion—offers a key stage to keep NOCs in focus and advance their integration into national climate policies. This means embedding NOCs into national climate frameworks with measurable targets, transparent reporting and clear roles in just transition strategies.

If the right framing and direction are set, COP30 can help governments, investors and climate advocates to embed NOCs into the architecture of climate governance—ensuring that the actors most central to the fossil economy become equally central to its transformation.