Santa Marta: Real Progress, and a Gap That Cannot Be Ignored
This week, the Governments of Colombia and the Netherlands hosted the first global conference dedicated to transitioning away from fossil fuels, which ended with real progress—but also at least one critical absence. The Santa Marta conference put the many perspectives of Global South producer countries, subnational communities and the human stakes of energy transitions more clearly on the agenda. But, in a significant omission, national oil companies (NOCs) were neither present nor discussed at the level required given their significance to the transition away from oil and gas.
NOCs already produce more than half the world’s oil and gas (with that share expected to rise), and that they represent the economic backbone of many producer countries; failing to include them and/or the barriers and solutions to their transformation undermines the prospect for roadmaps to deliver a fair, orderly, and equitable transition.
An NRGI delegation was in attendance, and we will be sharing further analysis in the weeks ahead. Today, we are sharing some of our top-line reactions:
For the first time, Global South producer realities were centered
"Santa Marta opened up an important conversation about what is at stake for Global South producer countries—energy independence, less instability, more inclusive and equitable development—and brought in voices that are often missing, like subnational governments," said Ana Carolina González, NRGI's Senior Director for Programs and Latin America Director.
For the first time, a major international forum placed the realities affecting communities in Global South producer countries at the center of the transition debate: fiscal dependence on oil and gas revenues, the instability that comes with price volatility, and what it will take to ensure the shift away from fossil fuels works for the people most affected by it. Importantly, subnational governments had a seat at the table. In many oil-producing regions, the transition is not a future concern—it is already arriving. In the oil producing regions of Campeche in Mexico or Putumayo in Colombia production has declined significantly. Where royalties account for 70–80% of local budgets, like in Niger Delta, a drop in production can mean schools with fewer teachers, roads that go unrepaired and workers facing an uncertain future. These are the communities that contributed least to the climate crisis. They should not be the ones absorbing its costs.
With conflict in the Middle East fueling oil price spikes and energy security fears, the current crisis made the case for an orderly transition stronger. As González put it: "For producer governments, high prices may create pressure to double down on fossil fuel investment. But volatility is not stability and short-term gains are not long-term strategy. The window to plan an orderly transition is open—the question is whether governments use it."
National oil companies: a missing piece
The co-host takeaways noted that participants "stressed the importance of clear policy signals and long-term planning, including clearer strategies for State-Owned Enterprises." At the final press conference, Colombia's Minister of Mines and Energy Irene Vélez Torres acknowledged that NOCs "should be part of the roadmap, because this is where the production takes place. So we hope that the countries can think about how their own companies should be included and should have targets of transition."
These are welcome signals. But recognizing that NOCs need clearer strategies is not the same as bringing them in as essential partners, and the gap between limited acknowledgement and meaningful inclusion is where credible transition planning can break down.
"NOCs are not peripheral players," says González. "They produce more than half of the world's oil and gas and that share projected to rise to 62% by 2050. NOCs are the economic backbone of many producer countries. The next step must bring them in as essential partners in any credible transition roadmap."
In many producer countries, NOCs underpin national budgets, jobs, public services and local economic stability. In Colombia, Ecopetrol alone contributed the equivalent of around 11% of the national budget in 2023, more than the country allocated to the education sector. Pemex directly employs over 128,000 people, with oil dominating the economy of states like Campeche, where it accounts for the vast majority of local economic activity.
Around $400 billion in planned NOC investment between 2023 and 2032 may not break even if demand falls in line with climate commitments. In some countries, more than 80% of planned investments are at risk. Leaving NOCs outside transition planning does not protect them or the economies that depend on them—it simply means the risks accumulate without a strategy for managing them. NRGI's recent report, NOC Transformation: Strategic Choices for an Uncertain Energy Future, offers a practical framework for how governments and NOCs can navigate this moment together.
What comes next
The co-host's takeaway note from Santa Marta does recognize that “clearer strategies for State-Owned-Enterprises" (which include NOCs) are important for long-term transition planning. The conclusions of Santa Marta will now feed into COP31, with Brazil’s COP30 presidency committed to building on the outcomes from Santa Marta in the roadmap it will deliver to this year’s annual UN climate conference (COP31) in Turkey. The Brazilian COP30 Presidency’s roadmap report cannot leave national oil companies on the sidelines. And, we need to ensure that spaces that meaningfully centre the needs of communities most exposed to the transition become the rule, not a welcome exception. The road ahead is long, but the direction is clearer—and Santa Marta moved it forward.