DONG to Ørsted: Seven Insights to Transform National Oil Companies

The experience of Denmark’s national oil company (NOC) DONG transforming into Ørsted, the world’s leading offshore wind developer, is a case worth exploring. While aspects of Denmark’s story are unique and not easily replicated, many of the underlying lessons can apply elsewhere.

Governments in oil- and gas-exporting countries have long worried about two things: the eventual depletion of reserves and the volatility of global oil and gas prices. In response, many have acknowledged the need to diversify their economies beyond fossil fuels—to create new industries, generate jobs, stabilize government revenues and earn foreign exchange. Yet, despite decades of ambition, few have managed to succeed. And now, the urgency is growing in light of the global energy transition, threatening long-term demand for oil and gas.

This shift has not only pushed governments to rethink their economic strategies but also forced national oil companies (NOCs)—along with their private-sector counterparts—to outline their own diversification plans. While these corporate efforts may not be sufficient on their own to shield a country from the impact of declining demand, they matter. Understanding how NOCs attempt to diversify can help governments determine whether these strategies support or undermine broader economic goals.

There are reasons to be cautious. Diversification by NOCs could end up wasting public resources if, for example, NOCs invest in poorly planned ventures, politically motivated projects or sectors where the company lacks expertise. Worse, if such efforts are not carefully aligned with national development and decarbonization goals, they can divert capital and attention away from other priority areas.