Life After Oil in Campeche: Youth Must Lead Alternative Paths

Against this backdrop, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the state-owned oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and local universities have a fundamental role to play: they must not only address the personal, professional and territorial development needs of young people, but also guarantee their participation in the decisions that directly affect them.

The challenge facing Campeche's young people

Campeche ranks among the three states with the highest dependence on public revenue from carbon-intensive activities, according to the 2025 Subnational Sustainable Finance Index. At the same time, its oil decline is tangible: in 2025, production stood at 801,080 barrels per day, less than half the volume recorded in 2013.

The State Development Plan itself documents a 47% drop in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) between 2004 and 2022, linked to the decline in oil activity. It also warns that the prolonged recession has had negative effects on employment, tax revenue and investment.

Diversifying the state's economy is therefore a pressing priority.

The pressure on entering the labor market is not a future problem; it is already here. In 2020, the largest age groups in Campeche were concentrated between the ages of 5 and 14. Six years later, part of that demographic is nearing or has already reached working age.

The challenge is not only to create alternatives before the youngest reach the labor market. Planning has to start now, so that those beginning their careers have real opportunities.

Involving young women and men directly is what counters their dissatisfaction. According to the State Development Plan, young people report a 47% satisfaction rate with their surroundings, which underscores the need for actions that build their interests into local decision-making.

In the end, economic alternatives that drive equitable development can emerge only if the effort reaches broad sectors of the population. Young people have to be part of the work that will shape the future of the place they live.

Youth participation as an antidote to political disenchantment  

The fact that 48.5% of young people do not feel represented by those holding popularly elected offices in Campeche points to a disconnect between the priorities of a significant portion of this demographic and the political projects being implemented.

That gap raises a key question: How could greater youth involvement in state development planning make sure their visions are better represented?

The willingness to be active participants already exists. Nearly 80% of the children and youth in Campeche who responded to the latest Consulta Infantil y Juvenil (Child and Youth Consultation) believe that exercising their right to participate is important for solving collective problems.

Asking what they want for their community, and how they want to take part, is one of the first steps toward building economic diversification scenarios that distribute benefits equitably and open the way to new realities.

That is why bringing their experiences, hopes and concerns to decision-making spaces is both valuable and necessary. 

A call to include young people  

Various instruments at the international, national and local levels can open space for young people to take part in energy transition planning and shape it.

At the international level, the NDC offers a significant window of opportunity.

Although these are national implementation plans, international climate negotiations include mechanisms that allow for transparent monitoring of their progress within the framework of the commitment to global goals.

These transparency exercises offer an international route for tracking the measures countries adopt, especially measures that both require youth participation and stand to gain from it.

Mexico, in its most recent update, incorporated a cross-cutting component on intergenerational justice and a just transition toward a sustainable economy. Among the measures included are the promotion of intergenerational dialogue spaces and taking future generations into account in present-day decisions.

Both can support the energy transition, particularly in decisions about new investment projects in oil-producing states.

Likewise, the NDC includes the development of a National Labor Transition Plan, which contains a strategy to generate decent green jobs in key sectors. That strategy has to reach young people in the Gulf states directly, so they can access the job-placement support necessary to develop professionally in their own state, beyond the oil industry.

At the national level, then, key energy sector players such as the Ministry of Energy and Pemex need to be at the table.

In general terms, and without specifying sectors, the NDC proposes to promote training and workforce retraining and redeployment in the most polluting industries.

In line with this measure, Pemex can also play a significant role by incorporating proactive labor transition planning through retraining programs that prepare its workers for emerging sectors, deliberately including women and young people. Furthermore, Pemex's opening toward new business lines related to the energy transition could be a way to incorporate young local talent from these states. To do this, the company could act as an ally in building training and industry-linkage programs, always designed and implemented with youth participation.

At the subnational level, local universities play a strategic role. On the one hand, they are the primary training ground for the talent available in these states. Their degree programs must adapt to respond to major local challenges, such as the oil decline.

The Technological University of Campeche is already doing this, recognizing the need to update its degree programs to align them with the new demands of the region. On the other hand, universities can play a key role in identifying new areas of economic development that align with local capacities and needs, generating evidence on key issues and facilitating coordination among stakeholders for decision-making.

In both roles, they can become spaces where young people organize and collectively influence the direction of the energy transition, beyond just job opportunities.

NRGI recognizes that there is not one energy transition but many, and that each region experiences them differently depending on its economic, political and social realities. In oil regions like Campeche, the oil decline is already a reality that demands a rethinking of resource governance at the subnational level.

As part of our 20th anniversary, under the motto "Transforming Governance for a New Era," we are committed to ensuring that youth and the range of actors in these states—subnational governments, universities, and more—participate in decisions about their future. No transition will be just if it is decided without them.