Gas in Mexico: Risks and Alternatives for a Sustainable Energy Model
Key Messages
- Mexico is critically dependent on imported gas for its energy system.
- More than 70 % of the gas consumed nationally comes from the United States, primarily through pipelines from Texas, creating vulnerabilities and exposing Mexico to significant risks.
- For years, energy policy has been based on three assumptions that require urgent review: 1) that Mexico will have sustained access to an abundant and reliable gas supply; 2) that U.S. gas prices will remain low and stable; and 3) that gas use does not compromise Mexico’s climate and energy transition goals.
- In an increasingly dynamic and uncertain context, growing dependence on gas—especially imported gas—increases the country’s exposure to emerging risks such as potential supply disruptions, price volatility, geopolitical realignments, rising methane emissions, and possible stranded assets.
- Without strategic management of these risks, the consequences for Mexico’s energy security and sustainability could be severe. It is urgent to analyze these risks and assess whether the current gas strategy is compatible with the country’s energy transition and climate objectives.
- This document offers a realistic perspective that acknowledges gas’ contributions but also identifies limits and conditions for its future use, proposing key questions to guide the debate.
The growing Mexican dependence on gas, particularly that originating from the United States, today represents one of the most pressing challenges to the country’s energy security.
Gas supplies most of the electricity generation and is an essential input for industry and Pemex. This centrality has been built on a growing dependence on imports from the United States. The deepening of this dependence has exacerbated the country’s energy vulnerabilities, making it more susceptible to adverse conditions.
This discussion paper examines the assumptions that have guided energy policy around gas in light of emerging risks in an increasingly dynamic and uncertain context. The risks identified are grouped into three main categories: supply risks, economic risks, and environmental and climate risks.
This analysis seeks to contribute to a more informed and realistic debate on the role of gas in Mexico, helping to move beyond the polarized positions that currently prevail. It offers a pragmatic, evidence-based approach that recognizes the complexities of today’s energy system while also identifying the limits and conditions for the future use of gas.
To advance in this direction, four key priorities are identified:
- Adopt a comprehensive risk assessment framework for gas.
- Advance an orderly and coherent energy transition that harmonizes the role of gas with renewable energies
- Develop a gas demand management policy.
- Strengthen capacities for measuring, monitoring, reporting, and verifying methane emissions.
Mexico has the legal framework, technical capacities, and institutional tools necessary to reduce its structural dependence on gas and mitigate the risks that derive from it. Strategically leveraging these capacities will be essential to ensure a reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy supply in the coming decades.
Authors
Talia Contreras
Mexico Program Officer
