From Transparency to Transformation: NRGI’s NOC Work Past, Present and Future

NOCs produce more than half of the world’s oil and gas, and in many producing countries their decisions have major implications for public finances, energy policy and long-term development outcomes. That role is only growing in importance in an increasingly uncertain energy future. How NOCs can adapt to that uncertain future remains unresolved, and shocks such as today’s soaring and volatile prices serve as a potent reminder of the need to look ahead and plan for the future.

NRGI’s work on NOCs has evolved alongside these shifts, supporting more informed and inclusive decision-making about natural resources and the energy transition. As we mark our 20^th anniversary in 2026, we are building on this experience with new insights on the future of NOCs.

Our new report National Oil Company Transformation: Strategic Choices for an Uncertain Energy Future is part of that effort. As we prepare to launch this work, we are also taking a moment to reflect on how our thinking around NOCs has evolved through four key phases, and what  this means for the choices that countries face now and hence for the future of NRGI’s NOC work.

1. Building the foundations: from transparency to governance and country-driven change (2006-2017)

NRGI’s early work focused on extractive revenue transparency, helping citizens better understand how extractive revenues flowed into public coffers. NOCs were not initially central to this agenda, but concerns about country-level corruption risks and NOC opacity gradually brought them to the fore, particularly around their role in financial flows. 

Sustained work on NOC oil sales transparency followed and led to tangible impacts. In Nigeria, work by NRGI and partners NEITI led to NNPC canceling criticized contracts. NRGI also produced guidance on state-owned enterprise (SOE) disclosures, supporting global norm strengthening and supporting efforts by organizations such as México Evalúa to assess NOC transparency. 

Over time, we expanded beyond transparency to other core NOC governance questions, asking not just what is disclosed, but how institutions are run. This included delving into NOC reforms such as limiting political interference while ensuring sufficient oversight.

In the early 2010s, we also began engaging more deeply on NOCs in emerging “oil hotspots” such as Ghana, including partnering with Chatham House and the Commonwealth Secretariat to establish the New Petroleum Producers Group. Key to our approach was tailoring methods to different settings, balancing cross-country learning with the reality that not all countries are Norway.

Across these early engagements—from UNOC in Uganda to Pertamina in Indonesia—we started to combine cross-cutting NOC research with country-level engagement, and saw this as useful in achieving impact, including in difficult contexts such as Myanmar.

• Effective NOC governance is critical and multi-faceted. NOC transparency is necessary but not sufficient. It must be paired with other governance improvements, including stronger institutions and oversight.
• Real change is largely country driven. Global tools are most impactful when shaped by and applied through country programming, drawing on deep country knowledge and partnerships.

2. Leveraging a data-driven approach for impact (2017-2020)

The second phase focused on data to drive reform, inform decisions, shape incentives and encourage better performance of NOCs.

The Resource Governance Index (RGI) benchmarked more than 50 NOCs and showed widespread governance gaps. This data-driven approach helped lead to tangible changes. 

In Qatar, engagement with Qatar Petroleum resulted in the company publishing annual and sustainability plans on its website for the first time. In Mexico, NRGI inputs to the National Hydrocarbons Commission (CNH), whose purview included regulation of Pemex, led to CNH pushing Pemex to improve transparency. 

A major milestone in this phase was the launch of NRGI’s National Oil Company Database, the world’s largest open dataset on NOCs. It provides quantitative insights on fiscal transfer patterns and debt-sustainability risks, helping governments, private-sector analysts, journalists and international financial institutions better understand the profound public finance implications of NOC decisions. 

NRGI also used this data-driven approach to support country-level analysis of opportunities and risks surrounding NOC oil sales, including in Ghana, and resource-backed loans, including in Nigeria.

Across these efforts, NRGI used data as a lever: to clarify fiscal stakes, justify accountability asks, and strengthen the connection between evidence and reform.

3. NOCs and the challenges of the energy transition (2021-2025)

In this third phase, the energy transition became central to our NOC work, which in turn helped shape broader understanding of the role NOCs play in shaping the global energy transition. In addition to controlling more than half of global oil and gas production, NOCs control around 40 percent of total sector investment and close to 60 percent of reserves. 

NOCs play a critical role in how producing countries respond to declining long-term demand for fossil fuels. Their investment strategies can either reinforce continued dependence on oil extraction or support a more diversified energy future.

A major NRGI focus during this phase was on the “risky bets” of NOCs in a context of weakening global hydrocarbon demand. Importantly, NRGI framed these risks primarily as a public investment and fiscal management challenge. We highlighted the impact of NOC investment choices on national cash flows, debt sustainability and long-term fiscal space. This framing proved influential in Ghana where supported partners including the  Alliance of Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) Working on Extractives, Anti-corruption and Good Governance to help prevent a risky prospective investment by GNPC. 

Recognizing the value of peer benchmarking among NOCs, we assessed how 21 NOCs acknowledge, assess and mitigate transition risks. We complemented this comparative approach with analysis anchored in country challenges, linking transition to fiscal and institutional questions such as Pemex’s debt challenges in Mexico and Ecopetrol’s relationship with Colombia’s government.

During this phase our NOC work also expanded into climate-related areas, including the crucial role of NOCs in methane emissions in Mexico, Nigeria and the MENA region. We contributed to methane abatement finance guidance targeted at NOCs and worked to improve incorporation of NOCs in national climate commitments, including in Mexico. We also worked with partners such as IISD on more effective climate community engagement with NOCs, including at various COPs.

Across countries such as Colombia, Ghana, Mexico, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda, our work responded to a growing demand among various stakeholders to deepen informed national debate on how NOCs navigate the energy transition. 

4. The next phase: NOC transformation 

NRGI’s NOC work is now entering an exciting next phase.

With the launch of our new report, we move beyond assessing risk to examining how governments, NOC leaders and other stakeholders can define credible NOC transformation pathways that manage transition risks while making the most of emerging opportunities. 

The report sets out a framework to help countries:

• Define national-level policy goals, 
• Assess capacities and constraints, including the NOC’s ability to pursue new business opportunities, 
• Align mandates, governance structures and financial resources with the chosen transformation pathway, and
• pursue a just transition, given the important role NOCs play in shaping outcomes for workers and communities in oil producing regions. 

This framework also reflects a key lesson from our in-country experience: there is no single model. What is feasible, and at what pace, will differ across countries and NOCs. Transformation pathways must reflect fiscal realities, political dynamics and institutional capacity.

Looking ahead

NRGI’s NOC work will continue to evolve to meet new challenges.  

We will contribute to discussions on transition roadmaps, where the role of NOCs will be decisive, and to accountability on methane commitments, where NOCs lag significantly behind. 

Our NOC transformation work will expand to better include energy security, the financing of transformation and links to national “green industrial policy” plans. We aim to update the NOC Database to integrate transition indicators, strengthening cross-country benchmarking and national advocacy. 

This also means engaging more with narratives shaping NOC policies and strengthening strategic communications to better support national debate on NOC transformations.

As highlighted during the launch of NRGI’s 20th anniversary earlier this month, the lessons of the past provide a foundation to “confront the challenges that persist, and the new ones that emerge.” This is particularly true for NOCs. As NOCs take on a larger role in an uncertain energy future, the stakes are rising. The challenge is no longer just improving NOC governance, but defining the role of these companies in addressing the most pressing resource governance challenges—from navigating energy transition risks and opportunities to advancing both development and decarbonization. 

NRGI looks forward to continuing this dynamic NOC work with partners to respond to these challenges.